This post was very interesting and the lines of research that you discussed allowed me to navigate through the history of the “hot hand fallacy”. The role of top down processes is a clear driving factor of this cognitive bias, and I thought it was particularly interesting that you discussed evolutionary forces that might explain our reliance on top down, contextual information in pattern recognition. A lot of the previous research on this phenomenon appears to be primarily statistical and looking at trends in how people perceive “hot” and “cold” streaks and whether these assumptions are valid.
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